We are starting to see the expected deceleration, but the long economic expansion should continue through 2019 and into 2020/2021.
Central banks have pushed off any attempt to “normalize" interest rates and are currently leaning towards a softer policy stance.
The anticipated cost pressures on the labour front have yet to appear and overall inflation remains below target in much of the world. Rates may retrace some of the drop experienced late in 2018 and the first half of this year, but any increase is now likely to be modest.
Earnings growth has slowed and equity prices have recovered, leaving modest room for gains over the balance of the year.
Geopolitical uncertainties and market events assure us of continuing volatility in the months ahead, and while potential outcomes are both positive and negative, we expect the market to react more forcefully to any unexpected crisis or disappointments.
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